Jun
23

Medios híbridos

Sábado, 23 de junio de 2012

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Fareed Zakaria en su blog de CNN:

Today’s cleverest dictators have evolved. They allow a certain amount of dissent, as an escape valve.

Consider China. There’s a new study out this week by three political scientists at Harvard. They’ve devised a way to analyze millions of social media posts in China. What’s special is that they claim to do this before the Chinese government gets to censor them – so it provides a unique insight not just into what the Chinese people think, but also what the government deems necessary to censor.

What do they find? Contrary to what you’d think, it turns out criticisms of the state are not more likely to get censored. Even vitriolic criticisms are allowed. Instead, the focus is on stopping mass mobilization. Last year Beijing blocked internet searches for Tunisia’s “Jasmine Revolution” to prevent discussions about the Arab Spring. Similarly last week searches for the numbers 4/6 were censored – the numbers represented June 4th, the anniversary of the massacre at Tiananmen Square.

Will Dobson, editor político de Slate, acaba de publicar un libro sobre este tema de la evolución de los dictadores, titulado “The Dictator’s Learning Curve.” Para escribir el libro Will habló con media Venezuela, incluyendo a este servidor, y, aunque todavía no he podido leer el libro entero, sí leí borradores de los capítulos sobre Chávez y me parecieron excelentes. (Además de Venezuela y China, el libro explora Rusia, Egipto y Malasia).

Hablando con Will me di cuenta que, en materia de innovación dictatorial, China nos lleva una amplia ventaja. Pero hay algunas áreas donde yo pienso que Venezuela ha innovado, como por ejemplo en la creación de medios híbridos.

Básicamente el gobierno tiene un problema con los medios oficiales: nadie cree que la información que transmiten es veraz. Si el gobierno quiere desmoralizar a la oposición con encuestas falsas “La Hojilla” no es la mejor manera divulgar estos “sondeos.” Si el gobierno quiere resaltar, inventar o tergiversar una noticia para crear divisiones dentro de la MUD no lo puede hacer efectivamente a través de “Los Papeles de Mandinga.” Si quiere divulgar unas grabaciones de líderes opositores criticándose unos a otros, necesita que otros medios populares entre sus adversarios difundan la noticia…No sólo porque nadie confía en los medios oficiales, también porque nadie los ve.

¿Qué puede hacer entonces el gobierno? Presionar, extorsionar o comprar medios independientes no para convertirlos en desaguaderos propagandísticos del régimen, sino para avanzar objetivos específicos como los ya mencionados: distorsionar noticias o divulgar grabaciones para poner a pelear, desprestigiar o caricaturizar a la oposición (incluso mediante falsas asociaciones), tratar de desmovilizar al universo antichavista con sondeos falsos, inflar la reputación de cuestionados analistas para que después puedan mentir con credibilidad, etcétera. El gobierno deja que estos medios operen con relativa independencia editorial, pero en ciertos temas, en determinados momentos, los manipula a su conveniencia. El timing es importante; lo que muchas veces delata a los medios híbridos.

Está lógica, por cierto, podría aplicar a algunas reputadas encuestadoras. Quizá el gobierno las compra o extorsiona y las deja operar con relativa independencia, excepto cuando de verdad las necesita.

Por eso es importante examinar los triunfos electorales de la oposición y detectar qué encuestadoras, en momentos claves, divulgaron cifras desfavorables para la oposición que luego resultaron ser falsas, como si la intención hubiese sido desmovilizar.

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Categories : Política