Dec
09

El riesgo para la oposición

Domingo, 9 de diciembre de 2012

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Estoy casi seguro que el anuncio de ayer desató dentro de la oposición poderosas fuerzas que no apuntan hacia el mismo lado y por eso amenazan con resquebrajar la unidad.

Hay que cuidarse de esto.

Si le pasa algo a Chávez muy pronto, Capriles es el candidato natural de la oposición. Y debe serlo porque sencillamente es el que tiene mayores probabilidades de triunfo frente e Maduro.

Pero dentro de la oposición Capriles ya no cuenta con el capital político con el que contaba antes del 7 de octubre. En cualquier país, bajo cualquier circunstancia, es difícil que un candidato ya derrotado, logre unir a su partido detrás de él una segunda vez (piensen, por ejemplo, en como Romney ya está absolutamente descartado para el 2016). Y en Venezuela no estamos hablando de un partido sino de una coalición de partidos, lo cual complica considerablemente el panorama.

Por suerte, las elecciones regionales son en una semana.

Para mí el escenario ideal -si Chávez fallece pronto- es que Capriles gane en Miranda, lo cual debilitaría considerablemente la resistencia a una segunda candidatura y haría más factible un consenso alrededor de él.

Si pierde, sin embargo, la oposición no tiene un Chávez que designe al candidato. Y treinta días son pocos días para organizar una primarias o lograr consenso alrededor de otra figura.

Al chavismo le conviene mucho este escenario, lo cual debe ser una señal de alerta para el próximo domingo. Ahora más que nunca hay que cuidar el voto y estar preparados para cualquier plan macabro del chavismo en los comicios en Miranda.

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Categories : Política