La amenaza de una tormenta perfecta

Miércoles, 13 de junio de 2012

Bloomberg:

Venezuela’s economy will go into a “deep recession” in 2013 as oil prices decline and the government curbs spending following elections in October, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Gross domestic product will contract 3.5 percent, Bank of America’s Francisco Rodriguez said in a report, revising down his forecast for Venezuelan crude oil prices this year to $100.8 a barrel from $107.6. The government will need to devalue the bolivar by 74 percent, he said.

“Venezuela’s fiscal situation continues to deteriorate due to declining oil prices, an acceleration in central government spending and exchange rate appreciation,” Rodriguez wrote in the report. “Correcting this fiscal gap will require a substantial fiscal and exchange rate adjustment in early 2013. The result will be a deep recession, which could be exacerbated by further oil price declines.”

Venezuelan crude oil prices have declined 19 percent since March to an average of $94.05 a barrel last week. The drop may deepen. Should Greece exit the euro, the country’s crude will decline to about $74.4 a barrel, triggering an economic contraction of 5.5 percent, Rodriguez said. A broader collapse of the euro-zone would result in oil prices of $55 a barrel and a GDP decline of 7.4 percent, he said in the report.

Sin las predicciones de este informe, el potencial de inestabilidad política en Venezuela ya es alto. Pero imagínense, por ejemplo, qué pasaría si Hugo Chávez gana en octubre y se muere en marzo en medio de una “profunda” recesión, un colapso de la eurozona y una guerra por la sucesión dentro del chavismo…

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