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Chávez se muere. Se convocan elecciones. Gana Maduro o Capriles y se ven forzados a hacer una serie de ajustes impopulares. Los ajuste son el resultado de las políticas ineptas de Chávez, pero el pueblo piensa lo contrario, que los ajustes son una prueba de que con Chávez se vivía mejor; que la oposición o Maduro, apenas se montaron en el poder, tomaron medidas que Chávez nunca hubiese tomado. Por el resto de la historia Chávez persiste en la memoria de los venezolanos como un santo, como el único presidente que nunca traicionó a los pobres.

El riesgo de que esto pase es real. Yo mismo he alertado sobre este peligro. Pero me pregunto si el fantasma de La rebelión de los náufragos nos está volviendo deterministas o está impidiendo que veamos otros potenciales desenlaces. Es decir, la gente pareciera asumir que los ajustes resultarán en caos, inestabilidad política y la caída del próximo gobierno, como ocurrió en 1989.

Pero ¿y si no? ¿Y si el próximo gobierno de oposición implementa estos ajustes con suma destreza, tacto y habilidad política y sobrevive esa dura primera prueba?

Piénsenlo bien. En pocos años, implementando las políticas correctas, el nuevo gobierno podría hacer mucho para mejorar la calidad de vida de los venezolanos de una manera notable, desde mermar la inflación y acabar con la escasez a reducir significativamente la tasa de secuestros y homicidios.

Imaginense como podría vender estas victorias un experto en relaciones públicas.

Venezuela tiene además una ventaja que no tienen otros países: petróleo. Petróleo caro que ayuda a amortiguar el efecto de los ajustes.

Claro, los obstáculos que podrían impedir un desenlace feliz son muchos. Para mí uno de los principales es el control que tienen los chavistas sobre todas las instituciones. Sin ese control la oposición ya confrontaría grandes desafíos para encaminar al país el la dirección correcta. Con los chavistas controlando todas las instituciones los desafíos son aún más abrumadores.

El futuro, pues, no se va nada fácil pase lo que pase. Pero tampoco debemos volvernos deterministas.

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